UN says up to half the teenagers in Africa will die of AIDS
AIDS will cause early death in as
many as half of the teenagers living in the hardest hit countries of
southern Africa, causing population imbalances nearly without
precedent, according to a report
released last week by UNAIDS,
the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.
Demographers predict that
two thirds of the 15 year olds in
Botswana will die of AIDS before
reaching age 50. Although that is
clearly the world's worst scenario,
researchers predict that in any
country where 15% of adults
are now infected, at least 35%
of those who are currently
teenagers will eventually die of
AIDS.
Botswana is predicted to have more adults in their 60s and 70s in 20
years' time than adults in their 40s and 50s
The AIDS epidemic is
already measurably eroding economic development, educational
attainment, and child survival - all
key measures of a nation's health - in much of sub-Saharan
Africa, according to the report.
The disease's ultimate toll on
the region, however, is likely to
be far more severe than what is
evident today, the report found.
"The demographic effects will
only be getting worse in the
coming years, even if by some
miracle HIV infection suddenly
stopped," said Peter Piot, director of UNAIDS. "I believe we
are only at the beginning of the
actual impact on societies of
AIDS."
According to the report,
there are now 34.3 million peo-
ple infected with HIV world-
wide, of whom 1.3 million are
children under the age of 15.
About 5.4 million people were
infected last year.
Last year 2.8 million people
died of AIDS; a total of 19 million have died since the epidemic was first recognised 20 years
ago. About 13.2 million children, the vast majority in Africa,
have lost at least one parent to
the disease.
There are a few success stories in an otherwise grim picture. The infection rate in Uganda has fallen to around 8%
of the adult population from a
peak of 14% in the early 1990s,
thanks to strong prevention
campaigns and the increased
use of condoms.
Despite earlier fears of an
epidemic in Asia, the rate of
infection remains generally low.
In Thailand the heterosexual
epidemic has been curbed,
although the virus is spreading
fast through shared needles and
unprotected sex between men.
Strong campaigns in some of
these countries have shown that
it is possible to slow the epidemic. But the report also said that
there must be a massive increase
in political will.
Scott Gottlieb, New York
studentBMJ 2000;08:259-302 August ISSN 0966-6494
